/THE BIODEFENSE IMPERATIVE/
BIOLOGY = POWER
Biology will decide the next great power contest.
“Biotechnology will become the new ‘strategic commanding heights’ of national defense”
HE FUCHU — PLA ACADEMY OF MILITARY SCIENCES (source)
China is investing aggressively in biotechnology—scaling biomanufacturing, securing genomic infrastructure, and developing next-generation biodefense. The U.S. and its allies are not keeping pace. Without matching this investment, we risk falling behind in critical capabilities and becoming dependent on adversaries for medicines, data, and crisis response. Our future depends on building the technological backbone of biosecurity, resilience, and strategic independence—before the balance of power tips.
A biosecure nation can…
conduct, protect, and translate its own fundamental research
manufacture its own critical medicines
detect and defend against biological threats in real time
remain self-reliant in moments of crisis
Today, America is not biosecure. We cannot protect Americans without foreign dependency.
/PART 01/
DIVERGENT DESTINIES
We stand at a crossroads. Two scenarios—both plausible—paint starkly different futures.
01 The Pandemic That Ends the American Century
A decade from now, a highly lethal respiratory virus originating in Southeast Asia outruns global health systems, exposing gaps in U.S. surveillance and response. China, leveraging long-term biotech investment, deploys a 90%-effective vaccine first and offers constrained supplies under terms that expand its geopolitical influence. Though vaccine development was suspiciously fast, there is no choice. The United States, caught off-guard and reliant on foreign supply chains, queues for doses amid mounting casualties. Biological leadership visibly tilts toward Beijing, underscoring how intelligence failures and manufacturing gaps can reorder global power.
02 Allied Biosecurity & Shared Prosperity
By 2035, the United States and partner nations run a federated BIORADAR and BIOINT grid that audits synthesis providers, high-containment labs, and transit hubs in real time, rendering clandestine gain-of-function work virtually impossible. When a novel avian influenza appears, the network confirms its origin within minutes and cues allied biofoundries to produce vaccines and therapeutics domestically, containing spread before it gains traction. This infrastructure, born from sustained investment and cooperation, fuels an era of secure innovation, growth, and independence for America and its allies.
/PART 02/
THE
STAKES
History Rhymes. It’s taught that every transformative technology – chemistry, physics, computing – has revolutionized warfare, the economy, and geopolitics.
■ 1910s
Chemistry
in WWI
Chemistry turned crude oil into plastics and fertilizer, changing the global economy—it also enabled the chlorine and mustard gas that choked the trenches. Industrial-scale explosives and gas warfare shocked the world into its first arms-control treaties.
■ 1930s - 1940s
Physics
in WWII
Physics gave us radar, jet engines, and the atomic bomb in one decade. Hiroshima and Nagasaki proved that science could end a war in a horrific flash, creating a new existential threat.
■ 1950s - 1980s
Computing
in the Cold War
& War on Terror
The microchip fueled half a century of growth while wiring the battlefield. Satellites, precision weapons, cyberattacks, and drones made conflict real-time, global, and relentless.
■ 2025
Biology
is next
Tools like low-cost sequencing, CRISPR, cheap DNA printing, and AI-driven protein design have begun to make cells programmable. These tools unlock one-shot cures and carbon-eating microbes— but they also create new means for misuse. COVID-19 showed how a single pathogen can paralyze the world. The next threat may spread faster, hit harder, and be intentionally released.
The anomaly in history would be if we entirely prevented the use of biotechnology in warfare.
/PART 03/
SYSTEM
FAILURE
We’re Losing the R&D Race
The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) warns the United States has just three years to respond before falling irreversibly behind– a looming “biotech Sputnik” shock. While China operates an integrated state-sponsored biotech innovation ecosystem. U.S. innovators navigate fragmented financial and regulatory systems. This imbalance risks putting future biotech advances under adversarial control.
We Can’t Make Our Own Drugs
Supply-chain dependence erodes sovereignty. America has outsourced critical pharmaceutical production to China- now we’re dependent on foreign manufacturing. Chinese producers control most of our essential drug ingredients. Export restriction could trigger medication shortages across U.S. hospitals within days. This isn’t hypothetical; it’s a strategic vulnerability inviting coercion. We must rebuild domestic biomanufacturing and secure our medical supply chain.
The Security Architecture Has Failed
Concern about pandemics and biological weapons are not a new problem. Until now, we have tried to solve it with political organizations. This has failed in the face of modern technology and geopolitical competition. The WHO, once the world’s outbreak sentinel, lacks enforcement power; the BWC has no inspection or verification mechanism. Russia and China have exploited these gaps, blocking transparency while investigating new capabilities. Only constant monitoring and domestic capabilities- not diplomatic promises- can truly protect America and its allies.
/PART 04/
BUILD & WIN
The blueprint for winning the biological century
Secure Discovery
The BIOSECURE Act (link) draws a bright line: build, test, and store biological data only in certified U.S. or allied labs—no shell companies, no “trust-us” data pipelines. Innovate here, keep the learnings within allied borders.
Reshore & Scale
End foreign dependencies by building domestic manufacturing capacity. Ensure Americans aren’t dependent on foreign production for its medicine. (Strategic Bioeconomy Investments the U.S. Can Make Right Now).
Defend & Govern
Operationalize BIOINT -- biological intelligence -- as the next essential layer of national security, just as GEOINT and SIGINT defined past eras. This delivers NORAD for microbes: a real-time detection and attribution network allowing America and its allies to deter and hold bad actors accountable.
THE MISSION
Ensure America and its allies are the most biosecure nations on the planet.
/PART 05/
BIODEFENSE IMPERATIVE
Deterrence requires intelligence – deep insights into adversarial capabilities, intentions, and actions.
Peacetime
BIORADAR stations worldwide collect real-time pathogen data, generating BIOINT that shields borders, hospitals, ports, and other critical nodes with early warning and source attribution.
Wartime
The standing network surges—sequencing flows straight into AI design pipelines to support delivery of diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics within hours.
We need a round-the-clock biodefense industrial base capable of delivering continuous threat detection and rapid response.
One backbone.
Two tempos.
Always on.
/PART 06/
SAFEGUARDS
Secure by design. Global biosecurity doesn’t trade freedom for safety. Designed right, it can deliver both.
With privacy-first tech, independent oversight, and strict data sovereignty, we can hardwire ethics into every layer of the biological enterprise shield. The result: real-time prosperity and protection that defends lives, liberties, and borders.
Biology will decide the balance of power in this century. We must not cede the field.
/PART 07/
JOIN THE BUILD
The risk is existential.
Biology is what we are and everything around us on this planet. Without hyperbole, we believe that how humanity manages the biological engineering era is the most important challenge of our time, only matched in scale with how we co-exist with artificial general intelligence
DIG DEEPER
The Biodefense Imperative
Securing the Biological Frontier
Written by:
Matthew F. McKnight
Ginkgo Biosecurity